The Herald Bulletin

Morning Update

Sports

March 11, 2014

George Bremer: Free agency season is upon us

The Colts are about to lose cornerback Vontae Davis. Unless, of course, the sides are about to agree on a new deal.

Depends on whom you're following on Twitter and when you last checked your timeline.

Yes, it's that time of year again. NFL free agency begins today at 4 p.m., and only the Indiana weather can match the market for sudden change and constant unpredictability.

The important thing to survive the next month or so until the draft is to remember a couple of ground rules.

No. 1: Free agency isn't free. Players are going to be overpaid, especially in the first few days. Seattle waited out the early frenzy last year and came away with a couple of defensive lineman — Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril — who helped pave the way for a Super Bowl title.

No. 2: Don't panic. If things don't go your team's way early on, have faith in the process. Most general managers enter the offseason with plans A, B, C, D and E, if necessary. There's a bigger picture at work in many cases, and it's wise to wait for the plan to unfold before making any definitive judgments.

The NFL offseason is an inexact science to say the least.

Indianapolis spent heavily a year ago — and could do so again this spring with an estimated $36 million in salary cap room remaining — and won the AFC South before advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs. Miami also spent heavily and wound up watching the postseason from home.

The Broncos went to the Super Bowl after making a big early splash with wide receiver Wes Welker. The Seahawks won it, however, with a roster built mostly through the draft.

The point is, there's no magic secret for success.

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